The US election will be a turning point for healthcare in 2020

December 10, 2019
A new report from The Economist Intelligence Unit, forecasting growth and assessing key risks in six business sectors for 2020, predicts that health spending will accelerate in 2020. Globally, 2020 will bring many of the tensions over healthcare into sharp focus, as countries try to expand their healthcare systems without raising costs too much.

Ana Nicholls, Director of Industry Operations at The Economist Intelligence Unit, says: The healthcare sector will grow even faster in 2020, particularly in developing countries. Even so, health reforms in China and the debate over state healthcare in the US presidential election campaign means there could be major changes in store for the sector. Pharmaceuticals will bear the brunt of cost-cutting, but most countries will still be trying to expand public healthcare systems.

In the US, public opinion is now leaning towards more, rather than less, state intervention in healthcare. During the election campaign Donald Trump will be under pressure to protect coverage. He will try to refocus the debate on cutting drug prices, where it is easier to gain popular support.

We expect US health spending growth to slow to 3.9% in nominal terms in 2020, down from 4.4% in 2019. China, meanwhile, will reach its deadline, set a decade ago, to provide “safe, effective, convenient and affordable” healthcare for all by 2020. With broad health coverage now in place, the challenge is to deepen and improve health provision, partly through greater uptake of innovative drugs.

The government will hasten implementation of the Healthy China 2030 plan outlined in 2016. As a result, we expect that China’s total health spending will rise by 4.8% in US dollar terms in 2020, up from just 2.2% in 2019.

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